2011 Victoria civic election wrap-up

I’ve been neglecting this blog but wanted to post some post-election thoughts regarding the surprising outcome and what we can look forward to.

Dean Fortin M 10080 YES
——
Paul Brown M 4229
Steve Filipovic M 2206
David Shebib M 161

Councillor Candidate(s)
First Name Last Name Initial Gender Acclaimed Votes Elected
Geoff Young M 8940 YES
Charlayne Thornton-Joe F 8803 YES
Lisa Helps F 8523 YES
Ben Isitt M 8419 YES
Marianne Alto F 7493 YES
Pam Madoff F 7321 YES
Shellie Gudgeon F 6904 YES
Christopher Coleman M M 6793 YES
—-
John Luton M 6343
Lynn Hunter F 6101
Philippe Lucas M 5719
Rose Henry F 4866
Sukhi Lalli M 3993
Linda McGrew F 3923
Aaron Hall M 2777
John Turner C M 2014
Robin Kimpton M 1519
Saul Andersen M 1055
Sean Murray M 757
Jon Valentine M 682
http://www.elections.civicinfo.bc.ca/2011/reports/electionresults.asp

First, the bottom

20 council candidates this time compared to 35 in 2008. There were also fewer fringe candidates and really no outright loonies or joke candidates. The two bottom men, Valentine and Turner doubled their vote tally over 2008. Cabbie Saul Anderson ran for Council instead of mayor this time going from 172 to 1055.

Surprises

Three incumbents tossed (Hunter, Luton, Lucas) is rare, I don’t think it’s happened in recent history, if at all.

Three new rookies with no real hands-on political experience rarer still. I think the closest experience Isitt has is his stint on the City’s old Environment and Shoreline Committee. The rest is academic.

Pam Madoff loses nearly 1700 votes since the last full election in 2008. Formerly always the top vote getter, this time she is third from last.

I predicted a close race for the final positions and this proved true. In 2008 there were nearly 3,000 votes separating ninth place loser me from last place winner John Luton.

My first-among-losers placing of 3737 in ’08 would have gotten me seventh place among the losers in ’11.

Geoff Young consistently placed in the centre of the pack in past elections. His leap to the top, ousting Thornton-Joe from the no. 1 postion may be unprecedented.

I’m surprised Paul Brown did so poorly. Clearly his message did not resonate as much as I thoght it would. I don’t know if he has the appetite to run again. Like Geoff Young, his wife might forbid it. I went from being a Brown supporter, to being ambivalent, to disappointed the more I read his platform. His views on homelessness, as reported on his web page are naive and incoherent. Talking with the other levels of government? Is this really a new, dynamic action plan?

The losers

I’m inclined to say people didn’t vote against Luton as much as they voted for the newcomers and Luton was pushed out. They voted against Lucas, however. Occupy Victoria likely had a negative impact. Perhaps unfair, as he was trying to defuse confrontation. Lynn Hunter appears to have fallen victim to the identical scenario that made her a one-term MP in Ottawa years ago. A sincere, behind-the-scenes policy wonk, in the ’93 Federal election she was wiped out by voter impatience and demand for change.

Signs

Even though so many complain about signs, they work. Shellie Gudgeon came out with a second batch of signs that were more legible than the first hard-to-read ones. Helps also had a lot of well-designed signs and that worked for her.

Filopovic had a motley assortment of leftover signs mostly attached to City lamposts and signs. This worked against him as it looked unprofessional for someone running for the top job. Steve loses because he runs for mayor using a councillor’s campaign.

Signs don’t bother me. I think of them as another temporary colourful artifact of a season, like piles of leaves in November, little flags on Canada day and crocuses in the Spring.

Ben’s triumph

Ben Isitt is wise to know he lost the mayor’s race twice already and couldn’t rally the numbers to topple Dean as that would involve splitting the NDP vote. If Brown had won yesterday, Isitt would likely run for mayor in 2014. Getting 2000+ more votes than either incumbents Hunter, Lucas and Luton was a stunner.

Outlook for the short and long term

The three newbies will soon be off to government boot camp, where they will learn the basics of how the City is run. The intent is to have them hit the ground running at their first Council meeting knowing the various departments, protocol and running formal meetings. I can see Gudgeon and Helps in the front row eagerly taking notes and Isitt in the back chewing gum thinking he could teach this course.

It is going to be a very interesting term.

The incumbents will be sniffing around the newcomers, looking for possible alliances. Madoff and Alto will likely take Helps under their wing. Gudgeon is a natural ally of the centre moderates. Still, Madoff will likely attempt to school Gudgeon in the field of culture and heritage as she is the self-appointed empress of that domain.

Isitt, I don’t know–he may go “mainstream” and build alliances or remain a lone wolf lefty.

I think they will all be disappointed that their individual pet project will get little air time at the Council table, instead their day is going to be filled out with slogging through mundane Staff reports on why an application to put a bedroom over a detached garage should be rejected.

Madoff must regain her profile so as not to be toppled by the newcomers of 2014.

2014 will be triumph or tragedy for incumbents depending on City finances and the bridge.

Wow, was I wrong

I was certain Hobbis would win the 2010 civic election by a slim margin. In fact, he lost by a lot. Alto: 3869, Hobbis: 2798 is one result I found.

I grossly overestimated the turnout. I thought the marina and bridge would bring out a lot more voters, but I guess the busy advance polls were an anomaly.

Apart from the first two results, I expect the remaining nine predictions will be more or less accurate.

I was also surprised at the strength of the “yes” side in the referendum. I thought “no” would squeak out a slim victory.

It appears tonight’s winner was the silent majority.

Here are the unofficial results:

My predictions in the 2010 civic byelection

Using my patented formula for accurately predicting elections, I give you the following:

Winner: Barry Hobbis – 10,800 votes
Runner up: Marianne Alto – 9,200
Third: Steve Filipovic – 9,000
Fourth: Sue Woods – 4,300
Fifth: Rose Henry – 4,200
Seventh: Paul Brown – 1,300
Sixth: Hugh Kruzel – 1,200
Eighth: George Sirk – 1,100
Ninth: Saul Anderson – 650
Tenth: Pedro Mora – 350
Eleventh: Rimas Tumasonis – 250

Barry Hobbis becomes our newest Councillor and the one with the shortest term in recent history–one year.

The three front runners are tightly bunched. A drop until we reach Sue Woods. Rose Henry is close behind. Rose doesn’t poll as high as she might as homelessness is eclipsed this time around by the bridge and the marina. Another drop to the three other moderates, Brown, Kruzel and Sirk. In my opinion, any of the above would have made sensible additions to the Council table.

Saul Anderson seems like a cool guy and I would like him to contribute to the community in other ways than fighting half-hearted campaigns. He has good insight into the late night economy.

Pedro, well, I think his democracy by consensus voting idea is non-sensical.

Rimas is tiresome. He comes from a generation that embraced the clown and the iconoclast: the Abbie Hoffmans and Frank Zappas. The problem is the current generation looks upon these geriatric jokesters as boring, self-indulgent narcissists. Today’s generation is both more cynical and more earnest. They read Catcher in the Rye and declare Holden Caufield to be whiny and immature, thinking he should get a life. They look at the antics of Tumasonis (or David Shebib in 2008) and are bored. I saw that on an old clip on YouTube they say.

Wildcards: Kruzel could galvanize Downtown voters and place as high as fifth. Some say Filipovic is running strong and could place second. The other candidates are relatively late entering the game and they frittered away valuable campaign time merely getting up to speed.

Graphic design and the 2010 civic election

Let’s switch gears and look at the candidates’ promotional material from a design perspective.

Some may argue you can’t judge a book by its cover but you can often tell a lot about a candidate by the quality (or lack thereof) of their campaign material. It’s impossible to meet every potential voter face to face so your website and signage stand in when the candidate can’t.

Some candidates design their own material. Others farm it out. Doing it yourself is probably a bad idea. One, because you’re probably lousy at it. Two, a candidate needs to be out meeting people, not tweaking their web page or laying out a brochure. If you don’t have the funds to do this you really have to ask yourself if you are a credible candidate capable of being the frontrunner. If donors are contibuting to your running mates but not you, maybe it’s time to drop out gracefully before you’re clobbered at the polls.

So let’s put politics aside and look at things from an esthetic perspective.

Marianne Alto has a slick campaign with a palette of muted tones; a yellowy-green on the website and the signs combine it with a subdued light purple. The colours are matched with an urgent, modern condensed typeface (Yanone Kaffeesatz in all caps) that keeps the overall look from getting too laid back and feminine. Alto appears to use Barbara Walter’s soft-focus lens on her videos–Barry, you might want to look into that…just kidding, heh.

Barry Hobbis is a close second design-wise. His page has all the bells and whistles Alto’s has but in a more conservative wrapping. Basic blue is the colour scheme here and the site is well organized although he uses the reliable yet dreaded Arial typeface. Barry’s signs are basic blue text on white with his name prominently displayed.

Paul Brown has done some improvements to his site. It’s clean and simple but is generic and lacks character. I haven’t seen a Brown sign yet.

Steve Filopovic‘s page looks like a template recycled from his run in past provincial and federal campaigns with photos of ocean-side camping. It’s probably not a good idea to show your commitment to the city by showing you getting far away from it. Palatino bold is the typeface which looks a bit clunky here. Steve uses a lot of plain green-on-white square signs hung in the diamond position.

Susan Woods doesn’t really have a website as much as an online pamphlet. Navigation isn’t an issue as there’s nothing to click on. The template used is fairly well-laid out and professional.

George Sirk‘s page is busy and quirky. Sirk’s signs use a spray-paint stencil.

Pedro Mora managed to throw together a skimpy Google blog.

Saul Anderson starts out good by getting a good header designed for him, featuring his fuzzy mug behind the wheel of his cab and his name in a rusticated typeface. The rest of the page disappoints with a rambling short essay and checklist of favourite topics cluttered together.

Rose Henry uses a Facebook page as a website.

Rimas Tumasonis apparently doesn’t have a website! This is odd because anyone can slap together a free WordPress site (like the one you’re reading now) in about five minutes.

Note: I say typeface, not font. Comic Sans is a typeface. 12 point Comic Sans bold is a font.

Why I’m supporting Barry Hobbis for Victoria City Council

I’m endorsing Barry Hobbis for City Council. If you live in the City of Victoria you should check out what he has to say.

CBC’s “As It Happens” on boulevard camping

CBC’s national current affairs show As It Happens talks with me about Victoria’s proposed prohibition on boulevard camping.

As I Happens Part II: Windows Media File

Segment begins at 7:50.

Or listen to the podcast:

http://podcast.cbc.ca/mp3/asithappens_20100901_37596.mp3

TC: City might ban boulevard camping

City might ban boulevard camping, end Pandora Avenue tent city

By BILL CLEVERLEY, Timescolonist.com August 30, 2010 7:27 PM

The days could be numbered for the makeshift tent city outside the Our Place drop-in centre on Pandora Avenue.

Citing public safety concerns, city staff are recommending city council amend its streets and traffic bylaw to prohibit camping on city road allowances — in particular on boulevards and medians. In addition, the amendment would prohibit occupation of medians between sunset and sunrise the next day.

However, a certain amount of displacement is exactly what’s needed on Pandora right now, argued Robert Randall, chairman of the Downtown Residents Association.

“It will scatter some of the elements that are using that median,” Randall said. “We were talking this morning that it’s getting to be more than just campers. It’s turned into the drug supermarket of the region and all sorts of things that are just not compatible with social calm and order.”

Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/news/City+boulevard+camping+Pandora+Avenue+tent+city/3461867/story.html#ixzz0y9ozr4Mo

I’m not sure I agree with Constable Pearce. I suspect enforcement of this bylaw will take up more police resources but I bow to the Constable’s expertise in these matters and hope it will not cost more than the millions of dollars already spent on this block. An unexpected side effect could be the dispersed campers could spend more time dwelling in our doorways and side alleys. Condo dwellers are already having to deal with discarded clothes and sleeping bags and human waste on their doorsteps on a daily basis.

Read my article on the bylaw on Vibrant Victoria: http://vibrantvictoria.ca/local-news/council-drafting-no-boulevard-camping-bylaw/

Globe: Victoria’s ‘tent city’ on verge of becoming public health hazard

Lack of hygienic facilities, group of injection-drug users pose potential risk, says B.C.’s chief medical health officer

Brennan Clarke

Victoria — From Saturday’s Globe and Mail Published on Friday, Aug. 27, 2010 8:46PM EDT

Two years ago, a landmark court ruling gave homeless people the right to pitch their tents in Victoria city parks. Now the province’s chief medical health officer says a bustling “tent city” made possible by that decision is on the verge of becoming a public health hazard.

“Any time you have a number of people camped together without hygienic facilities for a period of time there’s a potential for a health risk to those individuals,” Dr. Perry Kendall said.

Robert Randall, chairman of the Victoria Downtown Residents Association, said most nights this summer anywhere from 30 to 60 people have set up tents, tarps and makeshift shelters on the site, including a core group who have either refused shelter or been banned from Our Place.

The result has been an increase in violent crime, drug use, prostitution, used needles and discarded condoms.

“It’s become a drug-buying destination for the region, there are old blankets and sleeping bags and refuse everywhere and people are increasingly using the area as a toilet,” Mr. Randall said.

Similar problems occurred outside the former AIDS Vancouver Island needle exchange on Cormorant Street, less than three blocks from Our Place, Mr. Randall said.

The City is supposed to announce some sort of new initiative soon.

One thing no-one ever mentions is the welfare of the Our Place residents. Don’t they deserve a home where the front door is free from drug pushers? Do the most vulnerable members of our society have to push their way through a gauntlet of drugs just to get home?

Times Colonist: “Aim Pandora gripes at other governments, city councillor says”

Testy e-mail sent to businessman

By Bill Cleverley, Times Colonist August 7, 2010

Robert Randall, chairman of the Downtown Residents Association, hopes Thornton-Joe’s e-mail wasn’t an indication the city is giving up.

“I think we’re throwing in the towel a little soon by just throwing up our hands and saying it’s all in Gordon Campbell’s hands,” Randall said.

Randall believes there are steps that can be taken to stop the Pandora Avenue tent city from becoming a permanent fixture.

Some of the ideas that have been suggested are designating Pandora Green a provincial median which would prohibit anyone from using it to open up other areas of town to camping.

“Once the other neighbourhoods have a taste of what Pandora is experiencing, I think it would be a bit of a wake-up call,” he said.

Read more: http://www.timescolonist.com/news/Pandora+gripes+other+governments+city+councillor+says/3371030/story.html#ixzz0vz2Fk200

I was cc’d all those emails, and Matthews ticked me off for refusing to complain to other levels of government. As if he thinks all City Council has to do is plead a little louder to the Province and Feds.

That said, I do think that there may be more things the City can do to break up the tent city and the associated drive-thru drug supermarket. One of the examples I mentioned in the above article was designating Pandora green as a Provincial median. That means no pedestrians allowed and would also reduce the risk of further traffic deaths like we’ve seen recently. Would I support that? No, I see it as a desperate last resort.

I sent Charlayne a letter of support last night after the story was published but I said that the closure of St. Andrew’s school will be a terrible blow to the area and I don’t think we could survive another one like that. This neighbourhood is really teetering on the edge.

Mat Wright asks:

Rob – correct me if this is wrong. Does the court ruling allowing camping say it is permissible only if shelter beds are not available?

What I know is that the Supreme Court ruling allowed camping if the number of homeless outnumbered the amount of shelter beds. However, the revised City of Victoria bylaw does not mention shelter beds, it only has a few restrictions: no daytime camping, not in certain parks or sports fields etc.)

Times Colonist: Pandora homeless troubles soar

Police say 24/7 patrols not feasible despite rise in crime on 900-block

By Katie DeRosa and Bill Cleverley, Times Colonist July 16, 2010

Problems stemming from homelessness and drug use in the 900-block of Pandora Avenue have dramatically worsened in the last five years, according to Victoria police statistics.

However, the department says it can’t justify the $1.2-million cost of having police there around the clock and said the problem has to be dealt with through housing and support.

read more

I witnessed yesterday’s Planning and Governance meeting at City Hall where Council went over the budget for next year and the five year plan*. The block is sucking away most police resources. The police budget already comprises a huge amount of the annual budget. Patrolling the 900 block Pandora costs thousands in police overtime wages but this is still more cost effective than hiring and training new officers.

I’ve said it before but the solution addiction, homelessness and crime is treatment and housing for those willing and able to get with the program and institutionalization or incarceration for those that can’t. The Federal and Provincial governments must continue to do their part.

*side note: Where was the Johnson Street Bridge in previous five year plans? Engineers knew for years it was unfixable. Did Council?