My predictions in the 2010 civic byelection

November 19, 2010 at 11:25 pm 3 comments

Using my patented formula for accurately predicting elections, I give you the following:

Winner: Barry Hobbis – 10,800 votes
Runner up: Marianne Alto – 9,200
Third: Steve Filipovic – 9,000
Fourth: Sue Woods – 4,300
Fifth: Rose Henry – 4,200
Seventh: Paul Brown – 1,300
Sixth: Hugh Kruzel – 1,200
Eighth: George Sirk – 1,100
Ninth: Saul Anderson – 650
Tenth: Pedro Mora – 350
Eleventh: Rimas Tumasonis – 250

Barry Hobbis becomes our newest Councillor and the one with the shortest term in recent history–one year.

The three front runners are tightly bunched. A drop until we reach Sue Woods. Rose Henry is close behind. Rose doesn’t poll as high as she might as homelessness is eclipsed this time around by the bridge and the marina. Another drop to the three other moderates, Brown, Kruzel and Sirk. In my opinion, any of the above would have made sensible additions to the Council table.

Saul Anderson seems like a cool guy and I would like him to contribute to the community in other ways than fighting half-hearted campaigns. He has good insight into the late night economy.

Pedro, well, I think his democracy by consensus voting idea is non-sensical.

Rimas is tiresome. He comes from a generation that embraced the clown and the iconoclast: the Abbie Hoffmans and Frank Zappas. The problem is the current generation looks upon these geriatric jokesters as boring, self-indulgent narcissists. Today’s generation is both more cynical and more earnest. They read Catcher in the Rye and declare Holden Caufield to be whiny and immature, thinking he should get a life. They look at the antics of Tumasonis (or David Shebib in 2008) and are bored. I saw that on an old clip on YouTube they say.

Wildcards: Kruzel could galvanize Downtown voters and place as high as fifth. Some say Filipovic is running strong and could place second. The other candidates are relatively late entering the game and they frittered away valuable campaign time merely getting up to speed.

Entry filed under: City Hall, Election 2010, social issues. Tags: .

Graphic design and the 2010 civic election Wow, was I wrong

3 Comments Add your own

  • 1. ngawangchodron  |  November 20, 2010 at 2:21 am

    I think you are pretty close to what I think will happen..
    I still cherish a hope that Steve Filipovic will make a from-behind victory, and somehow..
    My dream ending would be Rose Henry winning. She is so genuine, so streetwise, so real and aware
    If you base your vote on knowledge, tenacity, and attendance at Council. she is the one. In fact at the All Candidates meeting that I went to it seemed to me that she was really great

  • 2. robertrandall  |  November 20, 2010 at 9:13 am

    Steve and Rose have great potential but I would like to see them do a year of volunteer committee/board work at City Hall or with their community association so we can see how they cope with a wider variety of issues.

  • 3. ngawangchodron  |  November 20, 2010 at 10:44 pm

    Maybe your predicto-meter needs a tune up..
    Sigh, looks like another year of the same old games on Victoria City Council. One can only hope that the passions which were aroused during the referendum/election will be channeled into some Action towards genuine change on Council next time


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