Wow, was I wrong

November 20, 2010 at 10:47 pm 1 comment

I was certain Hobbis would win the 2010 civic election by a slim margin. In fact, he lost by a lot. Alto: 3869, Hobbis: 2798 is one result I found.

I grossly overestimated the turnout. I thought the marina and bridge would bring out a lot more voters, but I guess the busy advance polls were an anomaly.

Apart from the first two results, I expect the remaining nine predictions will be more or less accurate.

I was also surprised at the strength of the “yes” side in the referendum. I thought “no” would squeak out a slim victory.

It appears tonight’s winner was the silent majority.

Here are the unofficial results:

Entry filed under: City Hall.

My predictions in the 2010 civic byelection 2011 Victoria civic election wrap-up

1 Comment Add your own

  • 1. Bernard von Schulmann  |  November 21, 2010 at 8:31 pm

    Like you, I missed this election by a country mile. I had some inkling that I might be misreading things a bit at the end of the week, but nothing dramatic.

    I think the major name endorsements helped Marianne Alto and I believe she had a better get out the vote campaign on election day.

    The low vote for No to me says a lot of people stayed at home that signed the petition. If these people had voted and turn out was more like 21000, I think would have have seen a different result.

    Just to note, 1135 people voted in the referendum but not in the council race, that is 7% of the referendum voters.

    Reply

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